Pitcher Archetypes
POWER
High strikeout rate (K/9 ≥ 9.5). Lives on fastball velocity. Dominates free-swinging lineups but can be wild.
OFFSPEED
Relies on breaking balls and changeups to generate weak contact. Moderate strikeouts, low home runs. Effective against power lineups that chase.
GROUNDBALL
Low home run rate, induces contact on the ground. Struggles against speed lineups with good gap hitters. Park and defense dependent.
COMMAND
Low walk rate (BB/9 ≤ 2.0), low home runs. Works the edges of the zone. Vulnerable to patient lineups that draw walks and work counts.
FLYBALL
High home run rate (HR/9 ≥ 1.4). Gets weak contact but gives up the long ball. Very park and wind dependent — dangerous at Coors or Yankee Stadium.
Lineup Profiles
POWER
High home run rate and slugging percentage. Accepts strikeouts in exchange for big hits. Feasts on flyball pitchers and hitter-friendly parks.
CONTACT
High batting average, low strikeout rate. Puts the ball in play consistently. Hard to strike out but doesn't walk much or hit for power.
PATIENT
High on-base percentage and walk rate. Works counts, runs up pitch counts, forces starters out early. Tough on command pitchers.
SPEED
High stolen base rate and extra base hits. Creates runs through gaps and baserunning. Dangerous against groundball pitchers who put the ball in play.
BALANCED
No dominant offensive trait. Average across power, contact, patience, and speed. No specific pitcher archetype has a strong advantage or disadvantage.
Pitching Stats
ERA — Earned Run Average
Runs allowed per 9 innings pitched. League average is ~4.20. Lower is better. Affected by defense and luck, so less predictive than FIP.
FIP — Fielding Independent Pitching
Like ERA but only counts strikeouts, walks, and home runs — things the pitcher fully controls. More predictive of future performance than ERA.
WHIP — Walks + Hits per Inning
How many baserunners a pitcher allows per inning. League average ~1.30. Lower is better. Combines command and contact prevention into one number.
K/9 — Strikeouts per 9 Innings
Strikeout rate normalized to a full game. League average ~8.0. Higher means more swing-and-miss stuff. A key indicator of pitcher dominance.
BB/9 — Walks per 9 Innings
Walk rate per game. League average ~3.0. Lower is better. High BB/9 means poor command — free baserunners that lead to runs.
Game Conditions
Park Factor
How a stadium affects run scoring relative to league average. 1.00 = neutral. Above 1.05 = hitter friendly (Coors 1.18). Below 0.95 = pitcher friendly (Petco 0.93).
Total Multiplier
Combined effect of park factor, temperature, wind, elevation, and time of day on expected run scoring. Above 1.05 means more runs expected, below 0.95 means fewer.
Wind Direction
Out to CF = ball carries, more runs. In from CF = ball suppressed, fewer runs. Cross wind has minor effect. Most impactful at open-air parks like Wrigley.
Elevation
Higher altitude = thinner air = ball carries further. Coors Field at 5,200 ft is the extreme case with an 18% run inflation. Most parks are near sea level.
Bullpen Fatigue
How tired the relief pitchers are based on recent usage. FRESH = not pitched in 3+ days. HIGH = pitched heavily in last 3 days, performance degraded up to +1.5 ERA.
Injured List (IL)
Players on the 10-day, 60-day, or 7-day (concussion) injured list. Key injuries to starters, closers, and everyday players impact win probability. High impact = ace or closer out. Moderate = rotation pitcher or position player.